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Prior to the cancellation of the spring hunt, the bear population in Ontario was assumed to be relatively stable with estimates from 75,000 to 100,000 bears. There is now the perception that the number of bears has increased considerably in recent years.

The average annual bear harvest prior to the cancellation was approximately 6,400 bears, spring and fall combined. In the years following the cancellation of the spring bear hunt, the average annual harvest has been in the order of 4,900 bears. The difference of 1,500 fewer bears harvested represents a decrease in harvest of about 1.5% of the total population. If all of the 1,500 bears that were not harvested in each year were able to survive to this day, then it is possible to estimate that there has been roughly a 7.5% increase in the Ontario black bear population in the past 5 years.

Assuming that there were 100,000 bears, a 7.5% increase would result in a population of 107,500. If there has been a population increase, it would be spread over the entire range where black bear are hunted in Ontario. However, realistically not all of the 1,500 bears that were not harvested each year would survive. As well, the shooting of many nuisance bears goes unreported. An increase of 7.5% in the bear population is possible, but extremely unlikely.